Application of the Single Moving Average Method to Forecast Sales and Determine Marketing Strategy

Tight business competition necessitates companies to accurately forecast sales, discern sales trends, and devise effective marketing strategies to boost sales. This research utilizes the Single Moving Average method to forecast product sales at Vacash in 2024. Vacash, located in Pontianak, West Kalimantan, Indonesia, operates in the printing sector and produces various products based on orders and has never conducted sales forecasting before. This research aims to help Vacash determine production quantities and gain insights into sales trends, ultimately identifying optimal marketing times. This research employs a quantitative forecasting method for Vacash’s sales, using secondary data including monthly product sales from 2020 to 2023. The focus lies on products consistently produced each month over these four years, namely cake toppers and plaques. This research indicates that the forecast accurately predicts cake topper sales with an 87.5 percent accuracy rate, alongside accurate forecasts for the first four months of 2024. Furthermore, it reliably predicts plaque sales for January, February, and April. The forecast result unveils sales trends that help Vacash determine optimal marketing timing, particularly in months with declining sales. Overcoming the limitations of the single moving average method through more advanced and adaptive forecasting techniques will be essential for future
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